Numbers

The Numbers

Siemens Energy is an entire company defined by one segment. Strip out wind (Siemens Gamesa, still losing €1.36 billion at a –13% margin), and the remaining business — Gas Services, Grid Technologies, and Transformation of Industry — earns 11–16% segment margins on revenue that grew 13–14% in FY2025 with a €138 billion order backlog (3.5× annual revenue). The market has already paid for that re-rating: shares are up roughly 27× from the October-2023 trough of €6.87 to €187.62, and the stock now trades at roughly 117× trailing EPS and 28–29× EV/EBITDA — a price that requires Gamesa to actually hit its FY2026 break-even target. The single metric most likely to rerate or derate this stock is the wind-segment profit margin.

Snapshot

The order backlog runs three and a half years of revenue at the current run rate. That is how much forward visibility this business now has — and it is the reason the equity has rerated so hard.

Quality scorecard

The headline numbers say "industrial in turnaround." The fine print is two-track: gas turbines, grid, and process tech earn premium-industrial returns; wind has not yet stopped bleeding.

Revenue & earnings power

Revenue has compounded at roughly 8% since IPO; profit has not. The FY2023 –€4.6 billion net loss is the Gamesa onshore-blade-quality blow-up — that single incident destroyed the equity story for two years and is the reason the stock bottomed at €6.87.

Gross margin recovered first (16.8% in FY25, the highest since IPO). Operating margin tells the more honest story — 5.5% is still half what ABB or Schneider earn, and the gap is almost entirely the wind drag.

Q1 FY2026 profit before special items hit €1,159 million — a 12.0% margin, well above the FY25 full-year 6%. That is the data point management points to when defending the valuation.

Cash generation — are the earnings real?

Capex stepped up to €1.72 billion in FY25 (4.4% of revenue) and management guides €3–4 billion over FY26. That is the price of growing into the order backlog — capacity build for gas turbines and wind nacelles in the US and India.

Capital allocation

The Executive Board has proposed a €0.70 per-share dividend for FY2025 (approximately €600 million payout, 35–40% of net income), payable after the February 2026 AGM. The 40–60% payout policy is back. Buybacks were modest in FY24–FY25 (€130M / €170M) but accelerated in calendar 2026 — 9.45 million shares repurchased between March and April 2026 at prices around the mid-€180s.

Balance sheet health

Equity collapsed from €17.1B at FY22 to €8.8B at FY23 — over half the book wiped out by the Gamesa write-downs. The company secured a €15 billion guarantee facility (€7.5B from German Federal Government) in late 2023 to keep performance bonds flowing while wind was reorganized. The federal counter-guarantee was lifted in mid-2025 a year ahead of schedule once the FCF outlook stabilized — that single event re-opened the door to dividends.

Segments — where the money is and isn't

Three of four segments earn double-digit margins. The fourth — Siemens Gamesa, 26% of group revenue — earns a –13% margin and burns €1.36 billion of profit. If Gamesa breaks even in FY2026 as guided, group operating margin mechanically jumps from 5.5% to roughly 10%. That is the lever.

Gas Services and Grid each booked nearly 1.9× their revenue in new orders this year. That is the AI/data-center power-demand thesis showing up in the order book before it shows up in earnings.

Stock price — five years from spin-off

From €23 to €6.87 to €187.62 in five and a half years. The 27× round-trip from trough is the largest single-stock rerating in European industrials this cycle.

Valuation — what the market is paying

The 20-year history is two and a half years long — ENR has only been independent since September 2020, and posted GAAP losses for three of those five years. The honest valuation question is forward, not historical: at consensus FY2026 EPS near €3.7, the stock trades around 50× forward earnings. That is roughly double Schneider Electric and ABB.

The multiple expansion from 24× P/E (FY24) to 117× (current) happened in twelve months of price action against modest earnings growth. Valuation now embeds wind break-even and continued double-digit growth in the other three segments. Either side of that misses, the multiple has a long way to fall.

Peer comparison

ENR carries a P/E and EV/Revenue multiple roughly 4× ABB and Schneider despite earning a third of their operating margin. The premium prices the closure of that margin gap — and the gap closes only when wind is fixed.

Fair value & scenario

Sell-side consensus 12-month target is approximately €187 — bunched around the current price, with a high of €250 and a low of €100. Morgan Stanley raised its target to €200 in early 2026; activist investor Ananym Capital has built a stake and is publicly pushing for a wind spin-off, which would crystallize roughly €160 billion of "good company" value in one move.

What to confirm, contradict, watch

The numbers confirm that the non-wind two-thirds of Siemens Energy is a high-quality industrial: Gas Services and Grid Technologies are now compounding revenue at 13%+ with double-digit margins, and the €138 billion order book makes the next three years of revenue largely a fulfillment problem rather than a demand problem. The numbers contradict the popular framing that the stock is a clean energy-transition story — only 26% of revenue (and a –€1.4 billion contribution) comes from wind, while the real economic engine is gas turbines for fossil-fueled power and grid gear for AI hyperscalers, both of which the energy-transition narrative often skips. Watch FY2026 Gamesa quarterly margins: the company has guided break-even by year-end FY26, and every 100 basis points of improvement at Gamesa is approximately €100 million of group profit — the single most decision-relevant data point on the deck.